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Market Library

A curated record of how markets moved before the game.

A curated archive of the strongest stories selected for The Weekly Market Trace. Each page preserves the chart, the measurements, and the scope behind the observation.

Curated weekly Transformed data only Market movement, not picks

Weekly archive

Latest market stories.

12 stories

Football · Cross-market comparison

Same top-three share. Very different football fields.

The top three held about 28% in both markets, but the NFL distributed title share across much more of its listed field.

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NFL and college championship-market comparison showing nearly identical top-three title share, 16 of 32 NFL teams above equal share, and 22 of 138 college teams above equal share.

NFL · Futures field

The Rams stand alone—but the NFL field runs deep

The Rams led at 13.36%, 5.95 points ahead of Buffalo, while 18 teams sat between the absolute 1% and 5% lines.

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NFL title-share field with the Rams at 13.36%, 5.95 probability points clear of Buffalo, and 18 teams between the absolute 1% and 5% lines.

College football · Futures field

Seven teams crowded the top. Most of the field sat below 1%.

Ohio State led Notre Dame by only 0.53 points, seven teams cleared 5%, and 120 of 138 listed teams sat below 1%.

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College title-share field with seven teams at or above 5%, Ohio State 0.53 probability points clear of Notre Dame, and 120 of 138 listed teams below 1%.

NBA · Futures repricing

Philadelphia’s title chance nearly doubled in one hour

Philadelphia’s normalized title probability moved from 4.01% at 10 AM Central to 7.47% at 11 AM—an increase of 3.46 probability points, or about 86%.

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Before-and-after panel showing Philadelphia’s normalized title probability rising from 4.01% at 10 AM Central to 7.47% at 11 AM, with a same-hour diverging chart for Philadelphia and the five largest team declines.

MLB · Market flip

The week’s largest qualified MLB leader flip

Pittsburgh led early; Cleveland finished at 51.2% after a 10.38-probability-point leader swing.

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Pirates–Guardians pre-game probability trace with percentage and Eastern-time axes, a neutral 50% reference line, contextual lineup-post timing, Cleveland’s first observed lead at 11:10 AM, the 1:30 PM final observation, and the 1:40 PM first-pitch boundary.

MLB · Futures drift

Boston’s title chance rose 80% during a 7–1 calendar stretch

Boston rose from 1.98% to 3.56% across eight daily snapshots—the largest gain in the complete 30-team field.

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Boston’s eight-snapshot World Series title-probability path rising from 1.98% to 3.56%, aligned with a 7–1 calendar result strip, plus the top five field gains and a compact Dodgers benchmark.

Soccer · Futures field

Spain led the final World Cup title-market snapshot

The last pre-match capture had Spain at 58.0% and Argentina at 42.0% after both teams advanced through four knockout rounds.

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World Cup knockout paths showing Spain and Argentina advancing through four rounds, ending at the July 18 captured title-market split of Spain 58.0% and Argentina 42.0% from one reporting book.

MLB · Market flip

The week’s largest MLB leader flip

Milwaukee led early, but Pittsburgh finished with the pre-game edge after a 16.09-point leader swing.

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Brewers–Pirates pre-game probability trace showing Milwaukee as the early leader and Pittsburgh as the final leader, with a 66-minute postgame context window and the final score shown separately.

MLB · Cross-market trace

Expected scoring fell 1.5 runs. The favorite finished almost unchanged.

The aggregate total stepped from 9.0 to 7.5 while St. Louis moved from approximately 55.0% early to 54.9% at the final check.

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Braves–Cardinals synchronized cross-market trace showing the total falling from an early observed 9.0 to 7.5 while the Cardinals moved from approximately 55.0% early to 54.9% final.

MLB · Market flip

The week’s largest MLB market flip

Tampa Bay led at the beginning of the displayed trace, but Houston entered as the final pre-game leader after an 11.96-point leader swing.

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Rays–Astros pre-game probability trace showing the week’s largest observed MLB market flip.

Soccer · Three-outcome trace

Belgium led early. USA finished with the edge

A sharp USA move nearly reversed before a steadier climb carried the United States to a 4.7-point final pre-game edge over Belgium.

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Belgium–USA three-outcome pre-game trace showing USA finishing with the market edge.

MLB · Futures field

One clear World Series market favorite

The Dodgers held 28.8% of the market-implied championship field, while the top five teams accounted for 63.9%.

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World Series futures probability field showing the Dodgers as the clear market favorite.

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